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Many people bandy about the definitions of “disruptive technology&# or “the innovator’s dilemma&# without ever having read the book and almost universally misunderstand the concepts. It should affect how you think if you are an incumbent but also if you’re a startup. It is often LESS performant.
As such, the history of the MP3 gives an excellent framework to anticipate how disruptive 10x innovations impact a market, and who the winners and losers of such breakthroughs will be. incumbents simply did not have the right teams to adapt to the changing environment. The MP3 is a perfect case study of Innovator’s Dilemma.
Starting in 2014, and perhaps even a bit before, startups have been able to raise capital at better terms than at any time since 2000. Inexpensive equity dollars enable capital-intensive companies to amass the warchest necessary to dethrone incumbents. More money raised for less dilution.
The decline doesn’t seem to be letting up in 2019, with retailers shutting down 23% more stores than they did at the start of last year (2000+ store closings), according to Coresight Research. Even well-established brands like Toys “R” Us and Sears are not immune to these trends, both declaring bankruptcy in 2018.
And on the distant horizon, TechCrunch Disrupt will return to San Francisco on October 18. Some affected founders are pushing the narrative that incumbent banks lobbied the RBI to reach a decision favorable to them. In other news, TechCrunch’s Summer Party yesterday was a major success — thanks to all who turned up!
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